Even After the Debate, the Presidential Race Remains Close
BY PEDRO GRATEROL
Last month’s presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump generated media buzz, but despite moderate gains by Harris, the presidential race remains nearly tied, with all eyes on key swing states like Pennsylvania.
In addition to generating viral clips about unfounded claims about Haitian immigrants by former President Donald Trump, last month’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump has brought some movement to the polls in a tight race. Debates are often considered inconsequential in swaying voters. Most of the audience has already decided who to support and swing voters are less likely to watch. Yet, this particular exchange seems to have impacted Harris’ standing, especially in crucial battleground states. The debate, which took place in Philadelphia and was watched by over 67 million people, helped Harris to continue gaining momentum.
In national polls conducted after the debate, Harris gained modestly, adding one to two percentage points in several polls. The most significant takeaway, however, was that she stopped Trump’s prior gains. According to 538’s forecast, as of September 23, Harris’ chances of winning the election rose to 62-in-100, her highest since late August. The national margin between the two candidates increased by 0.4 points, from 2.5 to 2.9 in Harris’ favor, though this shift is smaller than what has historically followed presidential debates.
State-level polls show more pronounced movement. Harris made headway in key battleground states like Nevada, Wisconsin, and especially Pennsylvania. A Quinnipiac University poll found her leading Trump by 5 points in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, while a Marquette University Law School poll showed her up by 5 points in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, where Harris’ margin grew from near parity to a 5-point lead, this shift could prove decisive. The increases, however, remain inside of the margin of error.
Despite this, academic studies suggest that debates rarely change voter preferences in significant ways. Research by professors at Harvard Business School and the University of Missouri has shown that debates have minimal impact on voters’ final choices, with most voters already firmly aligned with their preferred party. Only a small percentage of undecided voters make up their minds after debates, and even fewer switch their support. The debate may not have drastically altered the race, but in a highly polarized political landscape, even minor gains in swing states like Pennsylvania could be pivotal, this is why the campaigns are particularly focused on this state. Nevertheless, we need to continue watching because, as the election draws closer, the impact of this debate will be better understood.