Immigration Takes a Back Seat in Trump’s State of the Union
Trump’s State of the Union address skimmed past immigration as economists warn deportations and tariffs could slow growth and weaken labor rights.When President Donald Trump delivered the longest spoken State of the Union address in recent history, he painted an upbeat picture, declaring that “our nation is back” and touting a “turnaround for the ages.” For Daniel Costa, an immigration attorney and director of immigration law and policy research at the Economic Policy Institute, the most revealing signal came from what received little attention.
“I think the most notable thing was how little he actually talked about immigration,” Costa said. “It was a really small share of the total speech.” That choice, he argued, “is really symbolizing the fact that the public is not as much on his side as it used to be as far as immigration policy.” Trump once held “high approval ratings on immigration at the time of the election,” Costa noted, “but that’s really gone down now. He’s lost a lot of support among independents.” Instead, the president leaned heavily into economic messaging, even as voters continue to cite prices and cost of living as top concerns. “He really was focusing on the economy,” Costa said, describing “a lot of issues around affordability and so much uncertainty because of his tariff policies.” On immigration, Costa heard a familiar frame. “When he did talk about it, of course, it was more of the same, really demonizing immigrants and trying to paint them as all criminals,” he said, while “failing to mention” alleged abuses by immigration authorities or the Senate debate over reforms tied to Department of Homeland Security funding. Costa’s deeper concern lies in how immigration is conceptualized. “It’s really managing to ignore the real-world impacts this is going to have on the economy,” he said of treating immigration primarily as a crime issue. “Basically, almost every economist out there is saying that what’s happening is really bad for the labor market, that it’s going to slow job growth and increase prices.” If the administration reaches its deportation target of four million people, Costa said, “the U.S. will lose about 6 million jobs, and 44% of those would be for U.S.-born workers.” The logic, he added, is straightforward: “Immigrants are not just workers, they’re also consumers. If you take that consumption out of the economy, it means less demand, which means less job creation.” Immigrants account for nearly 20% of the labor market, “one in five workers,” Costa said. The undocumented population alone makes up “about 5 to 6% of the total labor market” and “pay at least $100 billion in taxes every year.” Removing work authorization from millions would mean “taking away labor rights,” which he said, “is going to empower employers to commit more abuses with total impunity.” That dynamic, he emphasized, extends beyond migrant communities. “That doesn’t just hurt immigrants. It hurts U.S. workers too because it reduces overall bargaining power.” In industries like logistics, he warned that banning commercial licenses for undocumented immigrants “would impact thousands of people,” worsening existing shortages and affecting “delivery times, prices, workers, employers, the entire logistics system.” The speech’s limited legislative agenda showed another shift. “I don’t think we’re moving toward” an immigration system dominated by executive authority, Costa said. “I think we’re already there, and we’ve been there for about a decade.” With Congress divided and major enforcement funding secured through 2029, he expects “big policy swings depending on who’s in office.” For immigrant families watching from Alaska and beyond, Costa offered a sober assessment. “It’s one of the darkest periods I’ve seen working on this issue,” he said, urging communities to learn their rights and prepare for continued enforcement. |