War in Iran Sends Shockwaves Across the Global Economy

por pedro graterol

War in Iran disrupts oil, fertilizer and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,
​sending economic shocks across global markets and supply chains.

Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have killed the country’s Supreme Leader and triggered a regional war whose economic consequences are spreading far beyond the Middle East, affecting energy markets, industrial supply chains and global food systems. The conflict began Feb. 28 with coordinated attacks that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled the Islamic Republic for more than three decades. Violence quickly spread across the region. According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, more than 1,200 people have been killed in Iran by U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iranian retaliation has killed 13 people in Israel and six in the United Arab Emirates, while Israeli attacks in Lebanon have left 570 people dead.

The fighting has expanded into attacks on energy infrastructure and commercial shipping across the Persian Gulf. Three oil tankers were attacked overnight as traffic through regional waters slowed sharply. The International Energy Agency described the disruption as the largest supply interruption on record even as dozens of countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Much of the coverage has focused on battlefield developments and casualty counts, yet the conflict is also generating economic effects that extend across global markets.

The Strait of Hormuz sits at the center of the disruption. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil moved through the narrow waterway each day in 2025, along with about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade in 2024. Since the opening strikes, commercial shipping has been severely disrupted as insurers, shipowners and energy traders reassess the risks of operating in the corridor. Brent crude jumped about 15% in the early days of the conflict before climbing to around $120 per barrel as markets priced in the possibility of sustained disruption. Some analysts warn that prices could reach $150 if the conflict deepens.

The economic effects extend beyond oil markets. Disruptions at Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub have removed roughly one-third of the world’s helium supply from the market, tightening supplies of a gas essential for semiconductor manufacturing and medical imaging equipment. Agricultural markets are also under pressure. The Gulf region plays a central role in the export of fertilizer inputs such as urea, ammonia and sulfur. Urea prices have increased about 30% during the past month while soybean oil prices have reached their highest level in more than two years as planting season begins across the Northern Hemisphere.
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Energy exposure varies sharply across regions. The United States imports relatively little oil through Hormuz, while Asian economies depend heavily on shipments moving through the corridor. More than 80% of the oil and liquefied natural gas that crossed the strait in 2024 was destined for Asian markets. Japan receives about 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East and South Korea about 70%, prompting Seoul to launch a 100 trillion won market-stabilization program. China holds large strategic reserves that could cushion short-term disruption, while India faces greater exposure because of its reliance on Middle Eastern crude and thinner reserves. Following his father’s death, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s leadership and signaled that Iran will continue attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. ​